2008 Watch: The Early Field
Though it is ridiculously early for this, I want to run down a list of who I think will be in the running in 2008, on both sides, as it will be wide open. Possibly for a future "I told you so" moment. This project brought to you by insomnia and the number 8.
The Republicans: The Republicans need to build the momentum they have with George W.'s reelection, but it all matters about the feelings coming out of midterms in 2006., and how much of the Hispanic vote they can draw.
Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist - The current Senate Majority leader certainly has the experience needed to be President, but does he have a chance? After all, the last person to go from the Senate Floor to the Oval Office was JFK. It certainly hindered John Kerry. Personally, I like "The Senate's Only Doctor," but he has been in the Senate ten years, and is near 50, so if he doesn't make a run for it now, as a "younger" candidate, I doubt he'll have this good of a chance later. However, if he did make a bid, and didn't get it, the price paid in dignity would be high. His Senate position hurts him, so I don't think he will get the nomination. However, if he becomes instrumental in getting a popular Bush social security plan or tax simplification through the Senate, his odds improve.
Rudy Giuliani - "America's mayor," the man who was the bright spot of 9/11. Rumors say he could be making a bid for Hillary's Senate seat, or the NY Governor's office after Pataki, but the man has the national name-recongnition that few could ever hope for. However, as I discoverd while helping out a candidate running for State Congress in Delaware, who had probably met everybody in his urban district, and lost (becuase he was a Republican, that's Willmington for you), name recognition isn't everything. For one, he is too moderate for the base, and that coupled with his messy divorce, may bar him the nomination by the conservative base, the people who show up on primary day. However, he is a shoe-in pick for the Vice President-slot come 2008, as long as the top spot isn't filled by someone from New England.
Gov. Jeb Bush - Jeb really doesn't have any negatives, as far as I've found, unless you consider being the brother of the President a negative, and in a way, they are. While I think the current Florida governor could easily get the nomination in a weaker field, and could quite possibly nab it in the powerhouse field we're expecting. However, with America facing the possibility of three of the last four Presidents being a Bush, adding up to sixteen of the last twenty-four years (at the end of what would be Jeb's first term), I don't think it's viable. I think should the GOP lose in 2008, Jeb would be a great challenger to the Dem in 2012.
Tom Ridge - Hasn't done enough. While I think he may be able to nab the Vice position, if only becuase of the Homeland Security experience, and the fact that Pennsylvania went blue by only a little bit in the past two elections, the man just doesn't really posess the charisma, or the charm he needs to connect to the voters. If he gets the nom, it would be a tough battle.
Sen. Rick Santorum - Of any Republican currently in the Senate (including Dick Cheney), I think he has what it would take to get both the nomination and the presidency. Santorum is currently 46 (making him 50 in 2008), and still the junior Senator from Pennsylvania, and will be until Spector dies, I assume. He's already been in the Sentate 10 years as of 2005, and needs to jump ship if he ever wants to be more than a Senator (in most cases, a long career in DC legislature nixes any hope of of a career anywhere else in politics except K Street), he'll leave soon. He's number 3 in the Senate leadership, and is up for relection in 2006, most likely up against popular State Treasuerer Bob Casey, who is a pro-life Democrat, an election he may lose becuase of Philadelphia solid-Dem bias.
Dick Cheney - It will never happen. Too many don't like him, he has too many heart problems. A zero factor unless he endorses someone.
Sen. John McCain - It will never happen. Too many people don't like him in the base for him to get nominated, and somewhat of a rogue, and still has that Senatorial drawback, but could easily snag the Vice Presidential slot. Call him the anti-Edwards.
Gov. Schwarzenegger - I hope not. The party of the conservatives repealing a part of the Constitution to let him run? It's too strange to believe. He may have high approval ratings in California, but it is the left-coast. Things just operate differently out there, explaining how he got elected in the first place. If he does end up getting the nomination somehow, I may vote for Pat Buchannan, as that is something sure to get him fired up enough to run.
Gov. Pataki - He's not the most popular Republican from New York. At this point, chances are nil, but we'll see.
The Wild Cards: Either of these two entering the race changes everything.
Newt Gingrich - He has a new book out, (which I don't have the money for right now...and my birthday is coming up), which seems to indicate to me he wants something to do with the GOP in the future. He has declined that he wants to run, merely that he wants to influence those who are running. Doesn't sound like the Newt we know and love. Seems to want to update his "non-compassionate conservative" values for the post-9/11 era.
Condoleeza Rice - She has the experience, arguably more foreign policy experience than any president since John Adams, and certainly the most since Eisenhower. She's also black, and a woman. Is America, let alone the GOP, ready for a black woman President? Either one would raise the question, but both? It would be an interesting ride, and her chances rest on Bush's second term.
The Democrats: I'm certainly not the most well-qualified for this, as I know my party better than my opponents, especially since we're calling the shots, but I'll give it "the old college try." The Democrats are a party in crisis. They need to figure out whether they want to continue to drift to the left, or move back to center.
Sen. Hillary Clinton - Since everyone else assumes she has the experience, I will too. After defeat at thier own hands in both 2000 and 2004, the Democrats are scrambling for a leader. A face of the party. Is it Howard Dean? John Kerry? Howard Kucinich? [That last one would be a riot --Ed.] Hillary has too many negatives, Whitewater, her husband, tainted for at least the next decade by the Monica thing, and well, comedian Jeff Foxworthy puts it best: "If you can't say anything nice about a person, you must be talking about Hillary Clinton." I honestly cannot picture Hillary running for President, but rather becoming the "new" Ted "Quagmire" Kennedy.
Howard Dean - He promises to not run in 2008 if he gets the DNC Chair. The Democrats are still furious over the "scream" incident. Had Dean ran his campaign the way he governed Vermont, he would have had the Democratic nomination, and a better shot than Kerry ever had at the Presidency. He's not going away, but his liberal scare tactics better if he plans to stay.
Sen. John Kerry - Snowball's chance in hell. Reid should kick him out of the Senate for not showing up.
Sen. Barack Obama - If I was in charge of picking the DNC nominee, and the convention was tomorrow, I'd pick Obama. He doesn't have any of that "old stodgy" Democrat smell yet, he's a moderate on many things, conservative on some, liberal on others. In other words, he did what Kerry failed to do. He believes what he believes, and yet everyone has something they agree with him on. He's not rich, he's not old, and he's smarter than most of his fellow Democrats.
Gov. Ed Rendell - A non-factor. He is not really the Governor of Pennsylvania, but the Governor of Philadelphia, elected by the Philadelphians before they realized how much he messed up thier city, becuase Philadelphia and it's suburbs have enough votes to sway any statewide election. Yet they'll probably vote to re-elect him too. Why? I have yet to figure that out, and except for my recent start at University of Delaware, I have lived in Phildelphia my entire life. Hasn't done enough to warrent a Presidential run, though I was hoping Kerry had picked him for the VP, if only so that we could be rid of him.
Sen. John Edwards - May be damaged goods. Unless he proves he is more than just a pretty face, I doubt he will be much of a player, unless he becomes the best of a poor pool of candidates, like his running mate.
Gov. Bill Richardson - He could have beat Bush in 2004. He could have pushed even John Kerry to victory (possibly). Don't believe me? Go read this short bio, and learn why he scares me. He's Obama in 10 years, meaning with experience. If he keeps doing good, the nomination is his.
The Tickets:
This is the part where I make my dream ticket (for the GOP), and my most-feared (for the DNC).
GOP: Santorum-Giuliani or Rice-Giuliani
DNC: Richardson-Obama or (more likely, and unfortunate for the DNC) Clinton-Edwards
The Republicans: The Republicans need to build the momentum they have with George W.'s reelection, but it all matters about the feelings coming out of midterms in 2006., and how much of the Hispanic vote they can draw.
Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist - The current Senate Majority leader certainly has the experience needed to be President, but does he have a chance? After all, the last person to go from the Senate Floor to the Oval Office was JFK. It certainly hindered John Kerry. Personally, I like "The Senate's Only Doctor," but he has been in the Senate ten years, and is near 50, so if he doesn't make a run for it now, as a "younger" candidate, I doubt he'll have this good of a chance later. However, if he did make a bid, and didn't get it, the price paid in dignity would be high. His Senate position hurts him, so I don't think he will get the nomination. However, if he becomes instrumental in getting a popular Bush social security plan or tax simplification through the Senate, his odds improve.
Rudy Giuliani - "America's mayor," the man who was the bright spot of 9/11. Rumors say he could be making a bid for Hillary's Senate seat, or the NY Governor's office after Pataki, but the man has the national name-recongnition that few could ever hope for. However, as I discoverd while helping out a candidate running for State Congress in Delaware, who had probably met everybody in his urban district, and lost (becuase he was a Republican, that's Willmington for you), name recognition isn't everything. For one, he is too moderate for the base, and that coupled with his messy divorce, may bar him the nomination by the conservative base, the people who show up on primary day. However, he is a shoe-in pick for the Vice President-slot come 2008, as long as the top spot isn't filled by someone from New England.
Gov. Jeb Bush - Jeb really doesn't have any negatives, as far as I've found, unless you consider being the brother of the President a negative, and in a way, they are. While I think the current Florida governor could easily get the nomination in a weaker field, and could quite possibly nab it in the powerhouse field we're expecting. However, with America facing the possibility of three of the last four Presidents being a Bush, adding up to sixteen of the last twenty-four years (at the end of what would be Jeb's first term), I don't think it's viable. I think should the GOP lose in 2008, Jeb would be a great challenger to the Dem in 2012.
Tom Ridge - Hasn't done enough. While I think he may be able to nab the Vice position, if only becuase of the Homeland Security experience, and the fact that Pennsylvania went blue by only a little bit in the past two elections, the man just doesn't really posess the charisma, or the charm he needs to connect to the voters. If he gets the nom, it would be a tough battle.
Sen. Rick Santorum - Of any Republican currently in the Senate (including Dick Cheney), I think he has what it would take to get both the nomination and the presidency. Santorum is currently 46 (making him 50 in 2008), and still the junior Senator from Pennsylvania, and will be until Spector dies, I assume. He's already been in the Sentate 10 years as of 2005, and needs to jump ship if he ever wants to be more than a Senator (in most cases, a long career in DC legislature nixes any hope of of a career anywhere else in politics except K Street), he'll leave soon. He's number 3 in the Senate leadership, and is up for relection in 2006, most likely up against popular State Treasuerer Bob Casey, who is a pro-life Democrat, an election he may lose becuase of Philadelphia solid-Dem bias.
Dick Cheney - It will never happen. Too many don't like him, he has too many heart problems. A zero factor unless he endorses someone.
Sen. John McCain - It will never happen. Too many people don't like him in the base for him to get nominated, and somewhat of a rogue, and still has that Senatorial drawback, but could easily snag the Vice Presidential slot. Call him the anti-Edwards.
Gov. Schwarzenegger - I hope not. The party of the conservatives repealing a part of the Constitution to let him run? It's too strange to believe. He may have high approval ratings in California, but it is the left-coast. Things just operate differently out there, explaining how he got elected in the first place. If he does end up getting the nomination somehow, I may vote for Pat Buchannan, as that is something sure to get him fired up enough to run.
Gov. Pataki - He's not the most popular Republican from New York. At this point, chances are nil, but we'll see.
The Wild Cards: Either of these two entering the race changes everything.
Newt Gingrich - He has a new book out, (which I don't have the money for right now...and my birthday is coming up), which seems to indicate to me he wants something to do with the GOP in the future. He has declined that he wants to run, merely that he wants to influence those who are running. Doesn't sound like the Newt we know and love. Seems to want to update his "non-compassionate conservative" values for the post-9/11 era.
Condoleeza Rice - She has the experience, arguably more foreign policy experience than any president since John Adams, and certainly the most since Eisenhower. She's also black, and a woman. Is America, let alone the GOP, ready for a black woman President? Either one would raise the question, but both? It would be an interesting ride, and her chances rest on Bush's second term.
The Democrats: I'm certainly not the most well-qualified for this, as I know my party better than my opponents, especially since we're calling the shots, but I'll give it "the old college try." The Democrats are a party in crisis. They need to figure out whether they want to continue to drift to the left, or move back to center.
Sen. Hillary Clinton - Since everyone else assumes she has the experience, I will too. After defeat at thier own hands in both 2000 and 2004, the Democrats are scrambling for a leader. A face of the party. Is it Howard Dean? John Kerry? Howard Kucinich? [That last one would be a riot --Ed.] Hillary has too many negatives, Whitewater, her husband, tainted for at least the next decade by the Monica thing, and well, comedian Jeff Foxworthy puts it best: "If you can't say anything nice about a person, you must be talking about Hillary Clinton." I honestly cannot picture Hillary running for President, but rather becoming the "new" Ted "Quagmire" Kennedy.
Howard Dean - He promises to not run in 2008 if he gets the DNC Chair. The Democrats are still furious over the "scream" incident. Had Dean ran his campaign the way he governed Vermont, he would have had the Democratic nomination, and a better shot than Kerry ever had at the Presidency. He's not going away, but his liberal scare tactics better if he plans to stay.
Sen. John Kerry - Snowball's chance in hell. Reid should kick him out of the Senate for not showing up.
Sen. Barack Obama - If I was in charge of picking the DNC nominee, and the convention was tomorrow, I'd pick Obama. He doesn't have any of that "old stodgy" Democrat smell yet, he's a moderate on many things, conservative on some, liberal on others. In other words, he did what Kerry failed to do. He believes what he believes, and yet everyone has something they agree with him on. He's not rich, he's not old, and he's smarter than most of his fellow Democrats.
Gov. Ed Rendell - A non-factor. He is not really the Governor of Pennsylvania, but the Governor of Philadelphia, elected by the Philadelphians before they realized how much he messed up thier city, becuase Philadelphia and it's suburbs have enough votes to sway any statewide election. Yet they'll probably vote to re-elect him too. Why? I have yet to figure that out, and except for my recent start at University of Delaware, I have lived in Phildelphia my entire life. Hasn't done enough to warrent a Presidential run, though I was hoping Kerry had picked him for the VP, if only so that we could be rid of him.
Sen. John Edwards - May be damaged goods. Unless he proves he is more than just a pretty face, I doubt he will be much of a player, unless he becomes the best of a poor pool of candidates, like his running mate.
Gov. Bill Richardson - He could have beat Bush in 2004. He could have pushed even John Kerry to victory (possibly). Don't believe me? Go read this short bio, and learn why he scares me. He's Obama in 10 years, meaning with experience. If he keeps doing good, the nomination is his.
The Tickets:
This is the part where I make my dream ticket (for the GOP), and my most-feared (for the DNC).
GOP: Santorum-Giuliani or Rice-Giuliani
DNC: Richardson-Obama or (more likely, and unfortunate for the DNC) Clinton-Edwards
| Permalink | 
