Science, however, can never prescribe a policy choice; it can just lay out policy options. But the more we learn about the climate, the more it is clear that our knowledge is just scratching the surface. The National Research Council, for instance, last year issued a complex but fascinating report that spelled out that we know very little about the various "forcings" on our climate system beyond the effect of greenhouse gases. It also pointed out that the global temperature metric may not be the best signal as to what is going on with the climate. If the scientific discovery process can be likened to a police investigation, then focusing policy attention on greenhouse gases is akin to finding a murder victim in a house with a broken window and picking up a usual suspect whose modus operandi involves breaking windows. Unwise though it may seem to those who are convinced they've got the right man, much more investigation is needed.

Just as it is becoming increasingly clear that mankind cannot fine tune the climate system it is also becoming clear that the Kyoto-style policy solution of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by means of binding targets is just as simple-minded. The vast majority of countries, recognizing the link between energy use and economic growth, have rejected any binding targets on them. Most of the countries that have accepted targets are now looking increasingly unlikely to meet them. The few countries that are likely to meet their targets are mostly Eastern European nations that have done it the old-fashioned way, by economic collapse. The United Kingdom, which had a huge head-start in emissions reduction since the benchmark date of 1990 thanks to Margaret Thatcher's victory over the coal mining unions, has seen itself knocked off course not just to meet its self-imposed target of additional emissions reductions but even its Kyoto obligations themselves.

Posted by Ryan S. on Wednesday, November 30, 2005 at 12:01 AM | Permalink |