Democrats might not want to begin drafting their victory speeches just yet. While the political environment certainly seems to be in their favor, they still have plenty of obstacles to overcome before taking back control of Congress, let alone picking up seats.

Perhaps the biggest obstacle is next year’s map. Republicans currently hold a 55-45 advantage in the Senate, a 230-203 advantage in the House, and a 28-22 advantage in governorships. Although there will be 33 Senate contests next year, only one of them -- in Tennessee -- features a Republican-held seat that’s open. That means Democrats, in order to take back control of the Senate, have to defeat five GOP incumbents, plus win the open seat. And that’s assuming Democrats don’t lose any seats they currently hold.

In the House, all 435 seats are up for grabs, but the nonpartisan Cook Political Report says that just 28 of them are competitive, and 18 of these are held by Republicans. That means Democrats must win 83 percent of these GOP-held competitive seats to take back the House, says National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Carl Forti. “The math is very difficult.”

Posted by Ryan S. on Wednesday, December 14, 2005 at 7:07 PM | Permalink |