2008 Watch: The Early Field (Revised II)
Original Post
October Revision
Republicans:
Sen. George Allen - I saw him at CPAC, and man does he look like quarterback.
Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist - I am baffled as to how he won the Southern Republican Leadership Conference straw poll this weekend. I also saw him speak at CPAC, and had such low expectations, that I was actually impressed. He is retiring from the Senate soon, so he needs to be able to keep himself in the limelight for 2008.
Rudy Giuliani - America's Mayor is too socially moderate for the base, and ciritcs argue that he lacks experience for the office. I could see him as Vice President but not sure if he would take the office. If he seriously wants the Presidency, he should seek the New York Governor's office.
Sen. Sam Brownback - Too Religious Right for me. He is ardently a social conserative, and the religous right will undoubtly look to see if he endorses anyone in the primary, but I will not support him.
Sen. Rick Santorum - Represents "Big Government Conservatism" more than anyone else. Hated by the Left, and is in jeopardy of losing his reelection bid. Next November (2006) is make or break for him, though he claims it is his last election anyway.
Gov. Jeb Bush - "Jeb really doesn't have any negatives, as far as I've found, unless you consider being the brother of the President a negative, and in a way, they are. While I think the current Florida governor could easily get the nomination in a weaker field, and could quite possibly nab it in the powerhouse field we're expecting. However, with America facing the possibility of three of the last four Presidents being a Bush, adding up to sixteen of the last twenty-four years (at the end of what would be Jeb's first term), I don't think it's viable. I think should the GOP lose in 2008, Jeb would be a great challenger to the Dem in 2012." No change.
Sen. John McCain - It will never happen. Too many people don't like him in the base for him to get nominated, and somewhat of a rogue, and still has that Senatorial drawback. Call him the anti-Edwards. He's a bigger showboat than Donald Trump. I like that he is fiscally conservative, but I just can't trust him. I am afraid of him jumping ship to a third party and drawing votes from the nominee. He is also 70 years old, which could make him a gravitas VP pick to a socially conservative nominee. Seems to want to be "coronated" the nominee, but he seems to ignore the base.
Gov. Mitt Romney - The Governor of Massachusetts, according to Tim Saler, "may be able to gain a lot of support from government reform voters as well as those who desire a more prudent fiscal policy." However, he is Mormon, and that may not sit well with many moderate voters because of the reputation that church has. On the upside, he would be sure to win Utah, and he is governor of a decidedly liberal state. Came in second in the SRLC straw poll.
Gov. Mike Huckabee - He is from Arkansas, and a darling of the Christian coalition. With his shaky immigration and fiscal policies, could potentially be considered George W. II.
Gov. Haley Barbour - Current Governor of Mississippi, and possibly the only to handle Katrina effectively. He has credentials in the party:
Rep. Tom Tancredo - The rabidly conservative Congressman from Colorado is trying to make a name for himself and so are some activists. He seems to be strong on illegal immigration, and currently has a 100% rating by the American Conservative Union.
Noncontenders completely (who have been mentioned or were on the list previously):
Dick Cheney
Tom Ridge
Gov. George Pataki
The Wild Cards
Newt Gingrich - I loved his new book, and I think it is chock-full of platform building ideas for 2008. "He has declined that he wants to run, merely that he wants to influence those who are running. Doesn't sound like the Newt we know and love. Seems to want to update his "non-compassionate conservative" values for the post-9/11 era." Hopefully the ideas candidate for 2008, as the electorate mostly hates Gingrich, even if they don't know why.
Condoleeza Rice - Bush's second term has been lackluster, this has hurt Condi, but not the "Draft Condi" movement. They were in-force at CPAC, but she is not ready to run. Way to little campaign experience.
Dick Cheney - Now that would be an interesting campaign.
Democrats:
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton - "Since everyone else assumes she has the experience, I will too. After defeat at thier own hands in both 2000 and 2004, the Democrats are scrambling for a leader. A face of the party. Is it Howard Dean? John Kerry? Hillary has too many negatives, Whitewater, her husband, tainted for at least the next decade by the Monica thing, and well, comedian Jeff Foxworthy puts it best: "If you can't say anything nice about a person, you must be talking about Hillary Clinton." I honestly cannot picture Hillary running for President." However, she should not be underestimated.
DNC Chair Howard Dean - He seems to be really ineffective, and I doubt he will run in 2008.
Sen. John Kerry - Snowball's chance in hell.
Sen. Barack Obama - Too young for 2008, but keep an eye on him for 2012 or 2016.
Gov. Ed Rendell - I have never been able to pinpoint his popularity, even being from Philadelphia like he is. HE is very charismatic, and seems to be popular with Democrats. However, when his record is closely examined, it is less than stellar.
Sen. Joe Biden - He wasn't viable in 1988. I don't think 17 years in the Senate will change that. Can barely open his mouth without inserting his foot.
Sen. John Edwards - May be damaged goods. Unless he proves he is more than just a pretty face, I doubt he will be much of a player, unless he becomes the best of a poor pool of candidates, like his former running mate. Also, America hates trial lawyers, and he is not currently holding office.
Sen Evan Bayh - Americans for Bayh:
Gov. Bill Richardson - From New Mexico, which went slightly red in 2004, and though supposedly non-charismatic, his credentials worry me because I sort of like the guy.
The Wild Cards
Sen. Russ Feingold - The No. 2 man on evil campiagn finance reform, he seems to be not as toxic as Harry Reid or Nancy Pelosi. Let's hope McCain-Feingold remains a horrible law, and not a ticket. Americans for Democratic Action rates him at 96/100 progressive.
I am really unconviced as of yet to back any GOP horse except Barbour for VP.
October Revision
Republicans:
Sen. George Allen - I saw him at CPAC, and man does he look like quarterback.
Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist - I am baffled as to how he won the Southern Republican Leadership Conference straw poll this weekend. I also saw him speak at CPAC, and had such low expectations, that I was actually impressed. He is retiring from the Senate soon, so he needs to be able to keep himself in the limelight for 2008.
Rudy Giuliani - America's Mayor is too socially moderate for the base, and ciritcs argue that he lacks experience for the office. I could see him as Vice President but not sure if he would take the office. If he seriously wants the Presidency, he should seek the New York Governor's office.
Sen. Sam Brownback - Too Religious Right for me. He is ardently a social conserative, and the religous right will undoubtly look to see if he endorses anyone in the primary, but I will not support him.
Sen. Rick Santorum - Represents "Big Government Conservatism" more than anyone else. Hated by the Left, and is in jeopardy of losing his reelection bid. Next November (2006) is make or break for him, though he claims it is his last election anyway.
Gov. Jeb Bush - "Jeb really doesn't have any negatives, as far as I've found, unless you consider being the brother of the President a negative, and in a way, they are. While I think the current Florida governor could easily get the nomination in a weaker field, and could quite possibly nab it in the powerhouse field we're expecting. However, with America facing the possibility of three of the last four Presidents being a Bush, adding up to sixteen of the last twenty-four years (at the end of what would be Jeb's first term), I don't think it's viable. I think should the GOP lose in 2008, Jeb would be a great challenger to the Dem in 2012." No change.
Sen. John McCain - It will never happen. Too many people don't like him in the base for him to get nominated, and somewhat of a rogue, and still has that Senatorial drawback. Call him the anti-Edwards. He's a bigger showboat than Donald Trump. I like that he is fiscally conservative, but I just can't trust him. I am afraid of him jumping ship to a third party and drawing votes from the nominee. He is also 70 years old, which could make him a gravitas VP pick to a socially conservative nominee. Seems to want to be "coronated" the nominee, but he seems to ignore the base.
Gov. Mitt Romney - The Governor of Massachusetts, according to Tim Saler, "may be able to gain a lot of support from government reform voters as well as those who desire a more prudent fiscal policy." However, he is Mormon, and that may not sit well with many moderate voters because of the reputation that church has. On the upside, he would be sure to win Utah, and he is governor of a decidedly liberal state. Came in second in the SRLC straw poll.
Gov. Mike Huckabee - He is from Arkansas, and a darling of the Christian coalition. With his shaky immigration and fiscal policies, could potentially be considered George W. II.
Gov. Haley Barbour - Current Governor of Mississippi, and possibly the only to handle Katrina effectively. He has credentials in the party:
In the mid-‘80’s, Governor Barbour advised President Ronald Reagan for nearly two years as Director of the White House Office of Political Affairs.Definately great VP material. Would lock up the South for the GOP.
From 1993 to January 1997, Governor Barbour served two terms as Chairman of the Republican National Committee, including the 1994 elections when Republicans won GOP control of both houses of Congress for the first time in forty years and increased the number of Republican governors rose from 17 to 32.
Rep. Tom Tancredo - The rabidly conservative Congressman from Colorado is trying to make a name for himself and so are some activists. He seems to be strong on illegal immigration, and currently has a 100% rating by the American Conservative Union.
Noncontenders completely (who have been mentioned or were on the list previously):
Dick Cheney
Tom Ridge
Gov. George Pataki
The Wild Cards
Newt Gingrich - I loved his new book, and I think it is chock-full of platform building ideas for 2008. "He has declined that he wants to run, merely that he wants to influence those who are running. Doesn't sound like the Newt we know and love. Seems to want to update his "non-compassionate conservative" values for the post-9/11 era." Hopefully the ideas candidate for 2008, as the electorate mostly hates Gingrich, even if they don't know why.
Condoleeza Rice - Bush's second term has been lackluster, this has hurt Condi, but not the "Draft Condi" movement. They were in-force at CPAC, but she is not ready to run. Way to little campaign experience.
Dick Cheney - Now that would be an interesting campaign.
Democrats:
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton - "Since everyone else assumes she has the experience, I will too. After defeat at thier own hands in both 2000 and 2004, the Democrats are scrambling for a leader. A face of the party. Is it Howard Dean? John Kerry? Hillary has too many negatives, Whitewater, her husband, tainted for at least the next decade by the Monica thing, and well, comedian Jeff Foxworthy puts it best: "If you can't say anything nice about a person, you must be talking about Hillary Clinton." I honestly cannot picture Hillary running for President." However, she should not be underestimated.
DNC Chair Howard Dean - He seems to be really ineffective, and I doubt he will run in 2008.
Sen. John Kerry - Snowball's chance in hell.
Sen. Barack Obama - Too young for 2008, but keep an eye on him for 2012 or 2016.
Gov. Ed Rendell - I have never been able to pinpoint his popularity, even being from Philadelphia like he is. HE is very charismatic, and seems to be popular with Democrats. However, when his record is closely examined, it is less than stellar.
Sen. Joe Biden - He wasn't viable in 1988. I don't think 17 years in the Senate will change that. Can barely open his mouth without inserting his foot.
Sen. John Edwards - May be damaged goods. Unless he proves he is more than just a pretty face, I doubt he will be much of a player, unless he becomes the best of a poor pool of candidates, like his former running mate. Also, America hates trial lawyers, and he is not currently holding office.
Sen Evan Bayh - Americans for Bayh:
Very simply Evan Bayh, a Democrat with a proud political heritage, wins statewide in traditionally Republican Indiana. He was elected Secratary of State in 1986 and served two terms as Governor of the state of Indiana. Given then Governor Bayh's outstanding service and management of of Indiana as it's chief executive where "he was re-elected governor in 1992 with the highest percentage of the vote in a statewide election in modern Indiana history. By the end of his second term Bayh had an approval rating of nearly 80 percent." Evan Bayh then successfully ran for United States Senator in 1998 and 2004. President Bill Clinton once said of the Senator that "I tell you that I hope and expect some day I'll be voting for Evan Bayh for President of the United States."Gov. Mark Warner - the centrist Democrat favorite:
I will say this... The Democrats could do a lot worse than Warner. He is a pro-gun, social moderate, pro-business Democrat who recently has boasted about a gain of 11,000 new jobs in his state with an average income of $76,000 per year. The Governor's biggest accomplishment to date is his backing, and eventual signing, of a tax reform package supported by Democrats, many Republicans, and Virginia business leaders. The legislation was hailed nationally as an act of common sense moderation that reformed an archaic and regressive tax system responsible for hurting Virginia's ability to invest in infrastructure and grow the economy.
Gov. Bill Richardson - From New Mexico, which went slightly red in 2004, and though supposedly non-charismatic, his credentials worry me because I sort of like the guy.
The Wild Cards
Sen. Russ Feingold - The No. 2 man on evil campiagn finance reform, he seems to be not as toxic as Harry Reid or Nancy Pelosi. Let's hope McCain-Feingold remains a horrible law, and not a ticket. Americans for Democratic Action rates him at 96/100 progressive.
I am really unconviced as of yet to back any GOP horse except Barbour for VP.
| Permalink | 
